基于确信可靠性理论的蠕变寿命模型应用研究

蠕变持久寿命的评估一直受到理论与工程领域的研究和关注, 基于确信可靠性理论这一可靠性领域的新理论所提出的可靠性的三个科学原理建立了蠕变寿命的确信可靠度模型, 并使用不确定理论表征参数的不确定性。通过案例研究分析了模型参数的不确定性, 并将所得结果与基于失效时间数据的概率分布建模进行了对比。分析认为，基于确信可靠性理论的蠕变寿命模型是一种适用于缺少蠕变试验数据情况下的寿命评估新方法, 可以同时考虑多个不同参数不确定性, 蠕变应力指数的不确定性对蠕变可靠度曲线的趋势有显著影响。

Application research of creep life model based on belief reliability theory

The evaluation of creep endurance life has always been studied and concerned in the field of theory and engineering. Based on the three scientific principles of reliability proposed by the new theory of reliability field, the confident reliability model of creep life is established, and the uncertainty theory is used to characterize the uncertainty of parameters. The uncertainty of model parameters is analyzed through case study, and the results are compared with the probability distribution modeling based on failure time data. The analysis shows that the creep life model based on the sure reliability theory is a new method for life evaluation in the absence of creep test data. Multiple different parameter uncertainties can be considered at the same time, and the uncertainty of creep stress index has a significant impact on the trend of creep reliability curve.