大规模战役仿真分析中的因果追溯方法研究

在大规模战役仿真的结果数据分析中，因果关系的追溯分析是其中的重要环节。通过因果追溯分析，可以发现仿真模型存在的缺陷，发现仿真过程中对作战结果起决定作用的关键事件和事件序列，进而可以从更高的层次上发现战役过程中存在的内在规律，等等。针对战役仿真中因果追溯问题，分析其目前在理论和实践上存在的困难，现有手段所存在的缺陷，然后提出一个解决该问题的新的途径——基于行为建模的方法论。该方法论以仿真结果数据为基础，提取有关系统的行为以及因果关系，建立以因果关系为核心的行为模型，从而在行为模型的基础上进行因果关系的追溯。最后，对各种类型的追溯问题进行了一定的讨论。

Cause-and-Effect Relationships Tracing in Analysis of Large-scale Campaign Simulation

In results analysis of the large-scale campaign simulation, the analysis of cause-and-effect relationships tracing is one of most important steps. From causalities tracing, the bugs of models and simulation can be found. And the key events and event sequence deciding for fight results in simulation process can be known, so that the inherent rules of campaign in a higher level can be found, and so on. To solve causalities tracing problem, the theoretical and practical troubles were studied, and shortcomings of methods for the problem now. A new approach that is a behavior modeling based methodology was put forward. This methodology was based on data of simulation results, got behaviors and causalities from the data, and built the behavior models which described causality specially. The cause-and-effect relationships could be traced based on these models. Some kinds of tracing problems were discussed in a certain extent.