基于SIRV病毒传播理论的装备保障网络级联失效分析

针对装备保障网络遭受敌方攻击时所显现出的复杂性现象,对比分析网络级联过程与病毒传播过程的相似性。在已有的负载容量级联故障传递模型基础上,融入了病毒免疫传播的过程,定义保障节点的4种不同状态,构建基于病毒免疫传播理论的装备保障网络级联传递模型,更好地再现了我方保障机构受到敌方实际打击和舆情攻击时的真实状况。通过仿真对比分析表明,在防御资源有限和时间迫切的情况时,优先考虑主动免疫策略,能够取得较好的抵御级联失效的效果,还可以辅助实施目标免疫策略,从而使装备保障网络具有较强的健壮性和较好的恢复能力。

Cascading Failure Analysis of Equipment Support Network Based on SIRV Virus Propagation Theory

According to the complexity phenomenon of equipment support network being attacked by the enemy, the similarity between network cascading process and virus propagation process is compared and analyzed. On the basis of the existing load capacity cascading failure model, the process of virus immune propagation is integrated, four different states of support nodes are defined, and the cascade transmission model of equipment support network is constructed, which can better reproduce the real situation of our support organization being attacked by the enemy and public opinion. The simulation and comparison shows that when the defense resources are limited and the time is urgent, the active immune strategy is a priority, and can achieve better effect of resisting cascading failure with the implementation of target immune strategy, and thus the equipment support network has strong robustness and good recovery ability.