基于Bayes近似限法的串联系统置信区间的求解

运用基于Bayes的方法对红外空空导弹进行抗干扰性能评估时,只能分别得到导引头和导弹控制系统的抗干扰概率P<,g>、P<,c>及其置信区间,而难以求出导弹复杂系统的抗干扰概率在一定的置信度下的置信区间.针对该问题,提出用Bayes近似限的方法拟合导弹导引头、控制系统的整个串联系统的抗干扰概率的分布,得出该复杂系统的置信度为y的近似置信区间的求解公式,并给出导弹串联系统数字仿真中抗干扰概率的置信区间的求解实例,对该求解方法的正确性进行了验证.

Confidence Interval Solution for Whole Missile System Based on Approximate Bayesian Limits Method

The Bayes method can be used to evaluate the performance of missile guider and control system. It leads an easy way to obtain the anti-jamming probability and confidence interval of both guider and control systems respectively,however the confidence interval of the whole system is difficult to compute. The approximate Bayesian limit method was introduced to solve the problem of the confidence interval,and a formula of the approximate confidence interval was derived. Finally,the correctness of the approximate Bayesian limit method was validated through simulation.