混合式能源-经济-环境系统模型构建方法论

目前,国际上用于温室气体(GHG,green house gas)减排影响研究的能源-经济-环境系统综合评价模型的主要建模思路,是在一个模型中同时融合自底向上的部门分析与自顶向下的宏观分析,构建混合模型.其中的难点是如何在一个模型里能够将2种思路协调一致.较详细地介绍构建混合模型的3种主流方法:1)在完整的自底向上的能源系统模型的基础上添加一个简单的宏观经济模块;2)在一个自顶向下的宏观经济模型之内,对能源生产部门采用自底向上的技术描述;3)将2种思路的模型使用几个变量联接起来构建混合模型,每个模型独自运转.通过这3种思路的对比分析,认为遵循第3种思路构建的混合模型应用范围更广泛,能够用于分析复杂的能源系统问题,例如GHG减排的影响及能源系统发展战略选择等.

Review of hybrid approaches of energy-economy-environmental system model

For the assessment of GHG(green house gas) mitigation,the international energy-economy-environmental models used are mainly integrated top-down and bottom-up methodologies,which are called hybrid models.The key point building a hybrid model is to keep two approaches into consistency.In the paper,three types of approaches used to build hybrid model are introduced in detailed: 1) adding a concise macro-economic module in a detailed comprehensive bottom-up model; 2) describing the energy production by bottom-up typed energy technologies in a top_down typed macro economic model;3) linking a top-down model and a bottom-up model with some parameters,each of them running respectively and keeping into consistency by iteration method.Based on the review,the conclusion drawn is that the function of the model built with the third approach is more comprehensive that adapts to analyze the complex problems,such as the effect of GHG mitigation or the options of energy development strategies.