尖点突变理论在交通流预测中的应用

运用尖点突变理论从三维空间分析交通流三参数关系，并藉此得出我国高速公路通行能力及其速度预测值，划分稳定流和拥挤流，建立符合我国公路交通实际工况下的高速公路速度－流量模型，用实例数据验证了尖点突变理论在交通流预测中应用的可行性，最后，讨论了其应用前景和存在的问题与不足。

The application of cusp catastrophe theory in the traffic flow forecast

This paper analyzes the relationship between speed, density and traffic flow through the application of cusp catastrophe theory in the traffic flow, and the forecast results on speed and capacity value are given. According to the traffic flow data observed from Guangzhou to Foshan Freeway, speed flow models for freeway are presented by means of plotting out congested and uncongested traffic flow, and then the feasibility of the application of cusp catastrophe theory in the traffic flow is verified by large field survey traffic flow data. Finally, the prospects and problems of its application in traffic flow research are discussed.