影响沈阳粮食生产的主要因素分析

根据1991-2007年沈阳市的农业统计资料,分析了沈阳市近17 a来粮食生产的变化特征,选取影响沈阳市粮食生产的11个主要因素,应用灰色关联模型对影响粮食生产的诸因素进行动态关联分析。结果表明：沈阳市的粮食产量呈波动式的上升趋势;从粮食作物种植结构看,沈阳市粮食总产量和总播种面积的波动取决于玉米、水稻产量和播种面积的变化;从灰色关联分析来看,单产与粮食总产量关系最为密切,居各因素之首,其次是播种面积;机耕面积、农业实有劳动力和化肥用量等农业投入对粮食生产影响较大;作物生长季的自然条件与粮食生产的关联系数变化较大。在此基础上提出了稳定和提高粮食生产的主要途径,为今后沈阳市粮食生产的可持续发展提供参考依据。

The Analysis on Main Factors Affecting Grain Production in Shenyang

Based on the statistical data from 1991 to 2007 in Shenyang,the dynamic change of grain production was analyzed.The eleven factors which mainly effect grain production were selected to conduct the grey correlation analysis.The results showed as follows： The grain yield increased as a whole but fluctuated between different years.The change of total yield and planting area in Shenyang mainly depended on maize and rice from the crop construction.Grain yield per hectare had the highest relationship with the total grain yield as planting area followed.The agricultural input such as the area cultivated by machine,actual rural labor force and amount of fertilizer application significantly affected grain yield.The correlation coefficient of natural resources with grain production between growing season changed greatly.Ultimately,some directions about stabilizing and improving grain production were provided for sustainable development of grain production.