基于多目标模糊优化模型的奇台县种植业结构优化配置

运用多目标模糊优化模型,对新疆奇台县农业种植结构优化配置进行了探讨。结果表明,要使其农业综合效益最大,必须要调整农业种植结构和减少农作物种植面积。在现有农业供水量不足的情况下,小麦、大麦面积需要逐渐减少,而玉米及经济作物（油料、甜菜）的面积应适当增加。相对2005年,在P=50%的灌溉用水的保证率下,2010年小麦、大麦种植面积应分别减少14.9%、19.2%,而玉米、油料、甜菜则应分别增长4.7%、23.4%、75.7%;到2015年,前两者需减少15.0%和20.6%,后3者增加2.6%、23.1%、75.0%。同时,在这两个时间段农田总面积将减少1 580 hm2、1 935 hm2,使农作物种植面积和水量实现最优分配。

Study on Optimization of Planting Structure Based on Multi-objective Fuzzy Optimization Model,in Qitai Country

Fuzzy analysis method of multi-objective optimization was used to discuss the optimization configuration of agriculture in Qitai.The result indicates that,in order to maximize the agricultural benefit,adjusting agriculture configuration and decreasing？the area of planting are needed.The area of wheat？and barley？should be reduced in the water deficient situation,and the area of maize and economic crops should be increased properly.Compared with 2005,in the assuring situation of P=50% for agriculture,the area of wheat and barley should be reduced by 14.9%,19.2%,and the area of maize,oil plants,beet should be increased by 4.7%,23.4%,75.7%;To the 2015,the area of wheat and barley should be reduced by 15.0% and 20.6%,and the other three plants should be increased by 2.6%,23.1%,75.0%.At the same time,in order to optimize admeasure of the planting area and agricultural water,the whole planting area will reduce by 1 580hm2 and 1 935hm2 in the two periods.