福建省生态系统服务价值变化对土地利用变化驱动因子的敏感性分析

应用谢高地等人的生态系统服务价值系数，分析了1995—2005年福建省土地利用变化及其所引起的生态系统服务价值变化，以及生态系统服务价值变化对影响土地利用变化的总人口数、GDP和城市化水平3个驱动因子之间的敏感性。研究结果表明：①1995年以来福建省耕地、林地、草地的生态系统服务价值显著减少，而园地、建设用地、水域的生态系统服务价值明显增加，由于前者大于后者，因而导致总生态系统服务价值不断降低；②福建省生态系统服务总价值变化对人口增长、经济发展和城市扩展3个因素均缺乏敏感性，但相对来说其对人口增长最为敏感，其次为城市扩展，而对经济发展的敏感性最弱；11a来其对总人口、GDP、城市化水平的敏感性程度分别增加了24．45倍、39．67倍和23．67倍。③建设用地和园地的生态系统服务价值变化对人口增长具有敏感性，而各种土地利用类型的生态系统服务价值变化对城市化水平和GDP的变化均缺乏敏感性，且它们对总人口的敏感性系数要远大于它们对城市化水平和GDP的敏感性系数。表6，参22．

Sensitivity Analysis on the Ecosystem Services Value of Fujian Province to the Driving Factors of Land Use Change

Based on XIE Gao-di's coefficient of ecosystem services value,we analyzed the sensitivity of the changes of ecosystem services value with the total population amounts,GDP and the urbanization level The results showed:①From 1995,the ecosystem services value of farmland,forest and grassland decreased dramatically;while the value of garden plot,construction land and waters obviously increased;Because the former was much greater than the latter,the total value decreased year by year;②The changes of total ecosystem services value lack sensitivity with the total population amounts,GDP and the urbanization level;But relatively speaking,it was most sensitive to population increase,less to urbanization level,and the least to GDP increase;Over the past 11 years,the sensitivity coefficient of the changes of total ecosystem services value to total population amounts,GDP and the urbanization level had been increased for 24.45 times,39.67 times and 23.67 times,respectively.③The ecosystem services value change of the construction land and the garden plot had obvious sensitivity with the population increasing,while the ecosystem services value change of all the land use types lack sensitivity with the urbanization level and GDP;but their sensitivity coefficients with the total population were much greater than those with the urbanization level and GDP.