农业政策相关变量对江西水稻总产的影响及其对策研究

粮食产业是基础产业，具有弱质性，实行政策扶持是必要的。以我国水稻的主产区——江西省为例，应用OLS回归分析与灰色关联度分析（GRA）相结合的方法，分析农业政策相关变量对水稻生产的影响，结果表明：水稻单产水平、农业生产资料价格、农村劳动力文化程度均对江西水稻生产有显著的影响，农业税收对水稻总产的贡献率为负，农产品收购价格指数与粮食总产量指数呈负向关系，这正印证了作为价格弹性较低的现象。根据这些研究结论，提出了加强政策性服务以促进稻谷增产政策建议。图4，表3，参11。

Influences of Variables Connected with Agricultural Policy on Rice Output in Jiangxi Province and the Countermeasures

As an infrastructural industry,grain industry is a relatively weak part in national economy, and always needs to get policy support. Taking Jiangxi Province, one of the major rice grain producing areas in China, as an example, this paper mainly analyses influences of variables connected with agricultural policy on its rice production. The methodology used here mainly includes the combination of OLS regression analysis and GRA. Results show that the dominant influential factors in rice production in Jiangxi are the levels of per unit area yield,the prices of the agricultural production inputs,and the intellectual degrees of rural labors,respectively and equally. And results also show that the contribution of rural taxes to gross rice production is negative, and the relation between the purchase price index of agricultural products and the index of gross grain production is also negative, which proves that the price elasticity is low. So, based on the conclusions mentioned above, some suggestions are raised here to strengthen the policy service so as to increase the rice grain yield.