工程项目风险元传递的系统动力学模型

基于广义项目风险元传递理论, 将导致工程量增加的因素视为风险元, 对工程项目风险元影响的传递情况进行了分析, 运用系统动力学构造出相应的因果关系循环图, 建立了风险元传递的系统动力学模型. 给模型中的变量赋值, 确定变量之间的函数关系, 利用iThink软件进行了模拟仿真. 结果表明: 风险元的发生对工程费用、工期以及质量都会产生不同程度的影响, 而且这种通过项目内部结构的传递影响是随风险元的增加而加速增长的. 另外, 反映项目各要素随时间动态变化的风险元传递模型的结果图能为风险管理及项目管理提供有力依据.

System dynamics model of construction project risk element transmission

Based on the generic project risk element transmission theory and system dynamics, a system dynamics model of construction project risk element transmission was developed. It considered the factors leading to the quantity increase of construction projects as risk element, it analyzed the transfer process of construction project risk element, and then it constructed a corresponding causal feedback loop. By assigning values to model variables and establishing functions between them, the model was simulated through software iThink. The results indicate that risk element exerts different degrees of influence on project cost, time and quality, and that the more risk element occurs, the faster will the impact accelerate through the internal structure of project. In addition, it can be concluded that the model results chart, which reflects the dynamic changes of individual construction project factor with time, can provide sound evidence for risk management and project management.