基于SD-GM循环预测理论的机动车污染物收费政策效应分析

本文从减排和缓堵两层视角,基于北京市2005-2017年的相关数据,构建了城市机动车污染物减排管理模型.首先,采用系统动力学与灰色预测理论相结合的方法来构建表函数,从而提高了参数的预测精度,并提出了一种新的系统动力学建模方法.其次,采用整体性检验法(如关联度合格检验)对模型进行验证,克服了局部性检验方法的一些不足.再者,对低、中、高三类方案进行了模拟,结果显示:低收费政策具有"双拐点效应",中-高收费方案间存在"边际递减效应",最后,以中等收费方案为例,对机动车CO,HC,NO_x和PM总量(减排效果)以及车均道路面积(缓堵效果)等主要变量进行中长期的动态仿真,结果表明:适度的收费能够实现减排和缓堵的"双赢",特别的,从短期来看,高收费方案的效果比较显著,但从长期视角来考虑,这种效果将逐渐被消弱.据此,能够为政府交通部门及环保部门提供决策依据.

Effects of the policy of air pollution charging fee based on system dynamics and grey model approach

From the perspectives of "reduction emission" and "congestion releasing", a vehicle pollution reducing management model is established based on the relevant data of 2005-2017 in Beijing. Firstly, the graphical function is constructed by using the approach of integrating system dynamics and grey model theory. It has improved the prediction precision of the parameters and put forward a new method of system dynamics modeling. Secondly, the integrity test (such as qualified verification of the degree of incidence) is used to test the model, in order to overcome some insufficient of the local testing method. Moreover, three kinds (including the low, medium and high policy) of schemes are simulated, and the results show that the low policy has a "double inflection-point effect". In addition, there is a "marginal diminishing effect" between the medium and high policy. Finally, taking the medium policy as an example, mid-long term dynamic simulation is carried out for the major variables (such as CO, HC, NO_x, PM, and per vehicle area of roads). In particular, in the short term, the effect of high scheme is quite significant, but from the long-term perspective, the effect will be gradually weakened. Therefore, it can provide decision-making basis for the government.