极端偏好影响的大群体应急决策风险演化模型

针对极端偏好成员在应急决策中存在较大影响力的问题,构建了个体极端偏好影响力模型,结合风险偏好矢量的方向性和距离性提出了一种新的决策成员风险偏好相似度模型,并根据此模型将极端偏好群体划分为极端偏好同质群体集和极端偏好异质群体集,在此基础上引入非极端偏好决策成员主观接受程度来说明非极端偏好决策成员对个体极端偏好同质群体集和异质群体集影响力的接受程度,进而构建多阶段大群体应急决策风险偏好演化模型.最后通过案例及数据仿真结果的对比分析,验证了该模型的合理性和有效性.

Risk evolution model for large group emergency decision-making influenced by extreme preference

Aiming at the great influence that extreme preference members playing in emergency decision-making, influence model of individual extreme preference is constructed. By combining the direction and distance of risk preference vector, a new risk preference similarity model for decision-making members is put forward. From this model, the extremists group is divided into two groups:Homogeneous group and heterogeneous group. On this basis, the degree of subjective acceptance for non-extreme preference members is introduced in order to explain the acceptance degree that non-extreme preference members to the homogeneous group and heterogeneous group. Risk preference evolution model for multi-stage large group emergency decision-making is further constructed. Finally, the rationality and validity of the model are verified by the contrast analysis of the data simulation results in case study.