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基于多场景和区间模糊数的输电网规划综合决策
引用本文:钟嘉庆,胡华伟,马丽叶,卢志刚.基于多场景和区间模糊数的输电网规划综合决策[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(9):2347-2353.
作者姓名:钟嘉庆  胡华伟  马丽叶  卢志刚
作者单位:1. 燕山大学 电力电子节能与传动控制河北省重点实验室, 秦皇岛 066004; 2. 国网冀北电力有限公司 秦皇岛供电公司, 秦皇岛 066004
摘    要:为解决电网规划决策中不确定性及模糊性问题, 将情景分析法与区间隶属度相结合, 提出一种新的输电网规划决策方法. 根据电网规划特点, 选取影响规划场景发生的5个关键事件, 依次求取其初始概率、模拟概率, 并由此推算出情景概率. 针对情景分析法在应用中难以准确量化及场景过多问题, 定义综合考虑情景概率及影响程度的评价因子指标实现对典型场景的筛选. 决策过程中, 采用基于梯形隶属函数的区间数模糊决策方法求取方案隶属度, 克服了规划指标难以精确计算问题. 并根据最大隶属度进行方案排序, 最终求得各方案优劣比较结果. 最后通过算例验证了该方法的有效性.

关 键 词:电网规划  情景分析  评价因子  梯形隶属函数  
收稿时间:2011-06-10

Decision of transmission network planning based on multi-scenario and interval fuzzy number
ZHONG Jia-qing , HU Hua-wei , MA Li-ye , LU Zhi-gang.Decision of transmission network planning based on multi-scenario and interval fuzzy number[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,2013,33(9):2347-2353.
Authors:ZHONG Jia-qing  HU Hua-wei  MA Li-ye  LU Zhi-gang
Institution:1. Key Lab of Power Electronics for Energy Conservation and Motor Drive of Hebei Province, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066004, China; 2. Qinhuangdao Power Supply Company, State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company Limited, Qinhuangdao 066004, China
Abstract:In order to solve the problem of uncertainty and fuzzy in power system planning, a new method combining scenario analysis and interval subordinate for transmission network planning is proposed. Five key events are selected according to the characteristic of power system planning, and then we get the initial probability, simulated probability, and calculate the probability of scenarios. Evaluation factors is defined which care about scenario probability and its impact to select scenario. It overcomes the problem that the scenario is too difficult to accurately quantify and too many in the scenario analysis. Trapezium subordinate function of interval number fuzzy evaluation method is used to find the membership of plan in the decision process. The maximum degree of subordinate is used to sort the results. Finally, the practical example is given to show the availability of the method.
Keywords:power grid planning  scenario analysis  evaluation factor  trapezium subordinate function
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