基于相关机会规划思想的模糊随机时间费用均衡模型

对于实际工程的管理者和决策者来说, 工程整体费用和工期之间如何达到均衡以及工程所处环境的不确定性是两个必须要面对和考虑的问题. 基于相关机会规划的思想, 针对随机性和模糊性并存的复杂不确定环境, 提出了一类时间费用均衡模型. 在建立的模型中, 以模糊随机变量来刻画工程所处的复杂不确定环境. 随后, 结合模糊随机模拟方法和遗传算法设计了一种混合智能算法, 用于求解该模型. 最后, 通过数值实验来验证所设计算法的有效性和稳定性.

Fuzzy random time-cost trade-off model based on the philosophy of dependent-chance programming

In real projects, the trade-off between the project cost and the completion time, and the uncertainty of the environment are both considerable aspects for managers. Due to the complex uncertain environment with coexisted randomness and fuzziness, a type of time-cost trade-off model based on the philosophy of dependent-chance programming is presented. In the proposed model, the environmental uncertainty of the project is described via fuzzy random variable. A searching method integrating the technique of fuzzy random simulation and genetic algorithm is designed to search the quasi-optimal schedule under some decision-making criterion. Some numerical example is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the searching method for solving the proposed model.