消除增长上限制约的管理对策生成法——-以银河杜仲区域规模养种生态能源系统发展为例

社会经济复杂系统中存在大量增长上限问题,刻画此问题的增长上限基模是由正反馈环、 负反馈环和延迟构成,其中负反馈环存在抑制系统不断发展的制约作用. 针对负反馈环产生制约作用的根本原因是存在起制约作用的负因果链, 首先基于对负因果链所属负反馈环中极大开环的结构特征分析, 遵循极大开环中输入变量改变量小于零的原则生成初始对策集, 接着根据复杂系统发展的多目标筛选得到目标筛选初始对策集, 再根据对策的实际实施条件筛选获得可操作的管理对策集, 然后仿真验证双筛选得到的管理对策的有效性.以银河杜仲区域规模养种生态能源系统发展为例, 基于2008-2010年的历史数据和其他实际信息,建立含七个核心变量的增长上限基模,利用此方法生成三条可操作性的管理对策. 以核心变量为基础,建立六棵流率基本入树,建立仿真模型.然后,定量仿真分析了消除增长上限制约的管理对策生成法的实施效应, 实现了从定性至定量综合有效分析,为实际系统发展提供决策依据,验证了此消除增长上限制约管理对策生成法的有效性.

The management countermeasures generation method of eliminating the growth upper limit——Take the development of the area scale livestock breeding ecosystem in Eucommia Galaxy as an example

There are lots of growth limit problems in the complex system of social economy,the growth limit base model consist of positive feedback loop,negative feedback loop and delay,and the negative feedback loop restricts the development of the system.Some negative causal chains that exist to make restricting effect are the root cause of the negative feedback loop that product the restricting effect,this paper first based on analysis of the characteristics of the structure in the maximum open loop belong to the negative feedback loop in negative causal chain,Follow the principle that in the maximum open loop input the change volume of the variables less than zero,producing the set of initial countermeasures,according to screening the goals in the complex system and getting some sets which are effective,and according to screening the actual implementation methods get some operational sets of management measures.Then simulation and validation the effectiveness of those management measures,eventually generated the set of management measures which are used to eliminate the restricted in the growth limit.Take the development of the area scale livestock breeding ecosystem in Eucommia Galaxy as an example,based on the historical data(2008-2010),building up the growth limit base model contains eight core variables,using this method can generate three management countermeasures which are operational.With the foundation of core variables,building up the simulation equation contains six of the rate fundamental in-tree and simulation model.Then,quantitative simulation analysis the implementation effect and demonstrates the correctness and effectiveness of the management measures,provide decision basis for the actual system development, verify the effectiveness of this management countermeasures generation method of eliminating the growth upper limit.