及时性自适应高维经济基本面建模与汇率预测分析

在人民币国际化不断推进,人民币汇率双向波动加强的背景下,构建具有优良预测能力的汇率预测模型愈发重要.参数模型对汇率预测的能力不仅取决于模型设定是否正确,还取决于模型能够同时:一方面能否迅速探测模型参数的结构性变化以使用最佳信息估计模型参数,另一方面能否及时识别模型解释变量以使用最佳解释变量对汇率进行预测.本文构建了自适应变元算法.该算法不仅能实时检测模型参数的结构性变化,探测参数的最大化同质区间,同时还能对变量进行及时识别以选择最佳模型解释变量,提高模型的预测能力.在样本外向前3至24个月的汇率预测中,自适应变元算法能显著超越随机游走,马尔可夫机制转换模型,误差修正模型,实时最优窗算法,多元自适应可变窗算法与其他经济基本面模型包括:弹性货币模型,购买力平价模型,利率平价模型,泰勒规则模型,偏移泰勒规则模型.变量选择结果显示,自"811"汇改以后,经济基本面因素决定了人民币汇率走势.中国与其他发达经济体包括欧元区,英国与日本的经济基本面同样能够决定美元兑人民币汇率走向.另外,自"811"汇改之后,人民币汇率预期相比于"811"汇改之前更易受到外部冲击的影响,合理的人民币汇率预期监管依然需要依赖于实行有管理的浮动汇率制度,防止汇率风险.

The real time adaptive high dimensional economic basics modeling with application in exchange rate forecasting

To develop an outstanding Renminbi exchange rate forecasting model based on the background of Renminbi internationalization and the increased two-way volatility becomes much more important. The forecasting ability of a parameter model depends not only on whether it is correctly specified, but also on one hand the efficiency of whether it can detect the structure changes and using the effective observations to estimate the parameters, and on the other hand on the ability of selecting the proper covariates that can be used in forecasting. In order to solve these required problems, this paper has developed the penalized adaptive method which can adaptively select the covariates and detect the structure changes. The developed model can outperform the local adaptive method and other economic fundamental methods in exchange rate predictions. In the USD against RMB exchange rate regime, we find out that the newly developed methods can manage of significantly increasing the forecasting accuracy compared with the second-best model. After the 811-exchange-rate-reform, the economic fundamentals have been significantly improved in determining the exchange rate expectation. Moreover, after the 811-exchange-rate-reform, the exchange rate of USD against RMB itself does not decide alone by the USD. It is also decided heavily by the other fundermental differences between China and the other developed countries such as UK, Euro Zone and Japan. The manageable floating exchange rate system is also crucial in preventing the exchange rate risk in China.