基于WRT方法的港口危化品物流风险评估研究

针对港口危化品物流风险管理中风险因素众多和交互影响的复杂性,构建港口危化品物流的WRT风险评估模型.首先基于物理-事理-人理WSR理论构建港口危化品物流风险评估指标框架,其次通过风险过滤和排序RFRM理论对风险因素进行双重过滤,保留关键风险因素.然后基于TSS情景构建理论从物理、事理和人理三个层面构建港口危化品物流的多维风险情景,通过深入剖析各风险情景下风险因素之间的耦合关系,刻画港口危化品物流中的不同风险状态与风险源最后,基于熵权法和贝叶斯理论对我国7个重要港口进行多维情景风险评估,结果表明天津港和南京港整体风险较大,多数情况下二维情景风险大于三维情景风险,同时从多维风险情景下对物理、事理、人理的耦合风险进行分析,展示了各港口的薄弱环节,最后为港口危化品物流风险管理提出建议.

Research on logistics risk of hazardous chemicals in port based on WRT method

In view of the complexity of many risk factors and interaction in the risk management of port hazardous chemicals logistics, the WRT risk assessment model of port hazardous chemicals logistics is constructed. Firstly, based on the Wuli-Shili-Renli (WSR) theory, the risk assessment index framework of port hazardous chemicals logistics is constructed. Secondly, the risk factors are double filtered by risk filtering, ranking and management framework (RFRM) to retain the key risk factors. Then, based on the theory of scenario structuring (TSS), the multi-dimensional risk scenarios of port hazardous chemicals logistics are constructed from the three levels of Wuli, Shili and Renli. Through in-depth analysis of the coupling relationship between risk factors under each risk scenario, the different risk states and risk sources under port hazardous chemicals logistics are clearly depicted. Finally, seven important oil ports in China are selected for multi-dimensional scenario risk assessment based on entropy weight method and Bayesian theory. The results show that the risks of Tianjin port and Nanjing port are relatively high, and in most cases, two-dimensional scenario risk is greater than three-dimensional scenario risk. At the same time, it analyzes the coupling of Wuli, Shili and Renli sub-systems under the multi-dimensional risk scenario, and shows the weak links of each port. According to the research results, some suggestions are put forward for the risk management of port hazardous chemicals logistics.