中国经济增长与杠杆率的非线性关系研究--基于制造业面板数据门限回归分析

传统理论基于有效市场理论(EMH)主要从公司财务视角研究杠杆率问题,忽略了生产环节的决定机制.本文从决定生产效率的全要素生产率视角对杠杆率的决定机制重新认识.并采用制造业29个行业1995-2016年的面板数据,以杠杆率为门限变量构建动态面板门限模型,主要研究结论为:1)经济增长-杠杆率的门限值位于名义杠杆率114,在门限值左侧,杠杆率增加促进经济增长,在门限值右侧,杠杆率增加"拖累"经济增长,杠杆率对经济增长整体表现"倒U"型关系;2)经济增长-杠杆率的泡沫杠杆率门限值位于泡沫杠杆率65,当名义杠杆率包含的泡沫杠杆率低于65时,杠杆率增加对经济具有显著的促进效应,当包含的杠杆率大于65时,杠杆率对经济增长的作用并不明显,说明经济可能进入了滞胀阶段;3)经济增长-足值杠杆率的关于对泡沫杠杆率存在双门门限效应,分别是43、49,当泡沫杠杆率小于43时,增加泡沫杠杆率对经济的增长的促进效应小于泡沫杠杆率介于43,49]区间的效应,当泡沫杠杆率大于49时,泡沫杠杆率对经济增长的促进作用不再明显.

Study on the nonlinear relationship between China's economic growth and leverage-Based on the panel data threshold regression analysis of manufacturing industry

Based on the effective market theory (EMH), the traditional theory mainly studies the leverage ratio from the corporate financial perspective and neglects the decision mechanism of the production link. A new understanding of the decision mechanism of leverage ratio from the perspective of total factor productivity in determining production efficiency. Using the panel data of 29 manufacturing industries for 1995-2016 years, the dynamic panel threshold model is constructed with the lever rate as the threshold variable. The main conclusions are as follows:1) Economic growth-the threshold value of the leverage ratio is located at 114 of the nominal leverage ratio. On the left side of the threshold, leverage increases to promote economic growth. On the right side of the threshold, leverage growth is a drag on economic growth. Leverage has a "U" relationship with the overall performance of economic growth. 2) Economic growth-the lever rate threshold of leverage ratio is located at the bubble rate of 65, when the leverage ratio of the nominal leverage ratio is less than 65, leverage increase has a significant promoting effect on the economy. When the leverage ratio is more than 65, the leverage ratio has no obvious effect one economic growth, indicating that the economy may have entered the stagflation stage. 3) The double threshold effect of economic growth real leverage rate on bubble leverage is 43 and 49 respectively, and the real leverage rate has different effects on economic growth according to the different investment climate.