中国节能减排系统动力学模型及政策优化仿真

为考察并比较不同节能减排政策对能源消耗和污染物排放的影响作用,从政府、经济、人口、科技、能源和环境等系统要素出发,构建了节能减排系统动力学模型;并以福建省为例,确定模型参数及主要方程,在各个子系统上分别赋予税收、金融、财政、环保、产业和科技等政策调控因子,动态仿真不同工具的实施效果.研究结果表明:在设定的情景及参数下,政策的调整与实施往往能够促进节能减排,但不能盲目改变政策的实施力度.不同政策其节能减排效果不同,税收、环保和产业政策对节能减排产生的效果最为明显,其中环保政策下环境相对污染度虽降幅不及税收政策,但主要污染物的前端治污效果凸显;而金融、财政和科技政策的节能减排效果较为微弱.

The system dynamic model and policy optimized simulation of energy conservation and emission reduction in China

In order to investigate and compare the effect of different policies of energy-conservation and emission-reduction (ECER), this paper constructs a systematic model which affects the ECER, with elements such as government economy, population, technology, energy and environment, and takes Fujian province as a case to determine the parameters and main equations, while adds policy adjustment factors from tax, finance, fiscal, environmental protection, industry and science and technology on each subsystem via system dynamics to further simulate different policy instruments. The results show that: given scenarios and parameters, on the one hand, the adjustment and implementation of policies can often promote ECER, but we can not blindly change the implementation of policies. On the other hand, different policies have the distinct effectiveness of its ECER practice, specifically, the effect of taxation, environmental protection and industrial policy on ECER is significant where the front-end pollution control of main pollutant on environmental protection policy works well. By contrast, the financial, fiscal and technological policies effect of ECER is relatively weak.