推动中国商品住宅价格的主要因素:时期与城市差异

本文梳理、总结商品住宅价格变动的影响因素和机理,在对中国城市房价特征的变化时点进行识别并根据城市房价波动特点进行分类的基础上,运用面板门槛回归模型,对中国35个大中城市2001至2015年商品住宅价格波动影响因素的时期与城市差异进行了实证研究.研究结果表明:2009年后我国城市房价的主要影响因素发生了改变,个人住房信贷可获得性、土地财政和土地供给对房价的影响显著增强,股票市场的投资替代品作用显现;对于不同城市类别,"北上广深"和热门"二线"城市构成的第1、2类城市房价在2009年后受土地财政、土地供给和个人住房信贷可获得性的影响较大,经济发展相对靠后的第3类城市房价在2009年后主要受收入水平推动.

Determinants of Chinese urban house price: Time variation and city disparity

This paper summarizes determinants and mechanisms of house price movements in general situations and special characteristics in China. On the basis of recognizing the periods during which house price changes differently and classifying cities scientifically, the paper examines the factors driving house price in 35 Chinese cities during different periods from 2001 to 2015 using the panel threshold regression model. The results show that the main determinants of house price in Chinese cities have changed after 2009. Availability of financing, land finance and land restriction policy has a sizable impact on house price, meanwhile the investment role of stock market revealed. As to house prices in different kinds of cities that in category 1 and 2 consisting of first-tier cities and several popular second-tier cities are driven by land finance of local governments, land supply and availability of financing after 2009. Moreover, household income has a significant influence on house price of cities in category 3, which are relatively less developed.