| 北京市商品住宅系统动力学模型构建及其在预警中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔啸,周克成,曹冬冰,李秀婷,吴迪,董纪昌.北京市商品住宅系统动力学模型构建及其在预警中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(4):672-678. |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔啸 周克成 曹冬冰 李秀婷 吴迪 董纪昌 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院研究生院 管理学院, 北京 100190;2. 中国科学院研究生院 工程教育学院, 北京 100190 |
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| 摘 要： | 次贷危机的爆发引起了学术界对房地产风险及预警系统的关注.首先对传统的房地产市场预警方法进行了回顾和分析,然后从系统科学的观点出发通过对商品住宅市场各影响因素的分析构建了北京市商品住宅的系统动力学模型.通过实证仿真研究验证了模型的有效性并利用该模型对不同假设情景下北京市2010年商品住宅市场的主要指标进行了综合模拟预测,为房地产市场综合模拟预警体系提供了一个系统预测方法.
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| 关 键 词： | 系统动力学 商品住宅市场 预警 房地产 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-5-31 |
Empirical study of systematic dynamics model construction of Beijing commercial housing market and application in early warning |
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| CUI Xiao,ZHOU Ke-cheng,CAO Dong-bing,LI Xiu-ting,WU Di,DONG Ji-chang.Empirical study of systematic dynamics model construction of Beijing commercial housing market and application in early warning[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,2011,31(4):672-678. |
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| Authors: | CUI Xiao ZHOU Ke-cheng CAO Dong-bing LI Xiu-ting WU Di DONG Ji-chang |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Management, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;2. College of Engineering, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China |
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| Abstract: | The outbreak of the subprime crisis caused the academic concern of risk and early warning systems on real estate market.In this paper,based on system thinking,we set up a systematic dynamics model of the commercial housing market of Beijing after the analysis of the factors effecting commercial housing market.Then,we prove the validity of the model by comparing the result of simulation and the historical data of Beijing commercial housing market.Finally,we obtain the value of several early warning indicator... |
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| Keywords: | systematic dynamics commercial housing market early warning real estate |
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