系统运行全部反馈环关键因果链分析法——以转型期火力发电系统实践为例

本文新建了系统运行全部反馈环关键因果链分析法， 此方法紧密联系系统实际， 首先用逐层法建立前期流率基本入树模型， 建立系统的（反馈网络）流图模型； 接着， 用枝向量行列式反馈环计算方法计算出系统的全部反馈环； 然后， 又紧密联系系统发展中的实际问题， 对全部反馈环逐条进行反馈环的因果链分析， 揭 示产生问题的不协调的全部制约因果链， 以及促进核心因果链， 建立关键因果链集合， 生成管理对策， 并促进对策实施. 实践证明， 系统运行全部反馈环分析法 是一个有效的系统分析新方法.

Analysis method of system running by key causal chains of all feedback loops—An example to practice for the coal-power system in the transferring period

This paper built a new analysis method of system running by key causal chains of all feedback loops. Through linking the practice, at first this paper used the step by step modeling method to build an earlier rate fundamental in-tree model and a relevant system flow graph model, then used the method of feedback loop branch vector determinant algorithm to calculate all feedback loops, then analysed the causal chains of all feedback loops one by one to find out all restricted causal chains which caused the system unbalance problem and all promote kernel causal chains, then created a variable set of the key causal chains and a counter-plan set for lessening the restricted factor, finally gave out the implementation tactics. Through the effective practice result for the coal-power system in the transferring period, it has proved that the analysis method of system running by all feedback loops is an effective analysis method of system running.