| 一个证据推理模型及其在专家意见综合中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨春,李怀祖.一个证据推理模型及其在专家意见综合中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(4):43-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨春 李怀祖 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安交通大学管理学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 表达为概率分布的专家意见的综合是许多决策过程的基本问题 ,也是在贝叶斯概率框架内难以处理的问题 .本文基于 Depster-Shafer证据理论研究了这类问题的一种处理方法 .首先提出了一个特别的证据推理模型及相应的推理算法 ,然后基于该模型描述了专家意见综合问题的建模和求解方法.
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| 关 键 词： | 证据理论 专家意见综合 主观概率 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-6788(2001)04-0043-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999年8月4日 |
An Evidence Reasoning Model with Its Application to Expert Opinions Combination |
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| YANG Chun,LI Huai-zu.An Evidence Reasoning Model with Its Application to Expert Opinions Combination[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,2001,21(4):43-48. |
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| Authors: | YANG Chun LI Huai-zu |
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| Institution: | Management School, Xi'an Jiaotong University |
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| Abstract: | The combination of expert opinions in the form of probability distributions is a foundamental problem in many decision processes, but difficult to tackle within the framework of Bayesian probability theory. This paper presents a method for the problem based on dempster\|shafer theory of evidence. Firstly a specific evidence reasoning model and an algorithm for it are presented, and then an approach for modeling and solving the expert opinions combination using above model is decribed. |
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| Keywords: | evidence theory expert opinions combination subjective probabilities |
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