全球发展、雾霾和健康期望寿命的模型数据分析

随着全球范围粗犷式的经济社会发展,空气污染问题日益严重,对公共健康造成极大威胁。基于新开发的动态面板门槛模型和面板向量自回归模型,在充分考虑异质性特征的前提下,探究了经济社会发展和雾霾污染对全球166个国家居民健康期望寿命的综合影响。研究结果表明,社会发展、雾霾污染和健康期望寿命存在动态互动效应,社会发展有利于提高公共健康水平,而雾霾污染整体上对健康期望寿命有负效应。此外,社会经济发展和雾霾污染对健康期望寿命的影响是非线性的,各因素的平均边际效应在不同情况下有所不同,而且各因素间也存在间接影响。主要的表现是,在发展速度缓慢和发展水平比较低的国家,居民的公共健康更容易受到雾霾污染的负面影响,而在高速发展和发展水平较高的国家这种负面影响会减小;更重要的发现是,在雾霾污染严重的国家,社会经济发展不仅不会提高居民的健康期望寿命,反而有负的平均边际效应,发展的积极影响被严重削弱。本文的研究结果不仅为相关标准的制定提供了参考,也对权衡经济社会发展和空气污染的政策的制定提供了一定的启示。

Model Data Analysis of Global Development,Haze and Healthy Life Expectancy

With the development of global economy and society, air pollution is becoming more and more serious,which poses a great threat to public health.Based on the newly developed dynamic panel threshold model and panel vector autoregressive model,we explore the comprehensive impact of economic and social development and haze pollution on the health life expectancy of 166 countries in the world.The results show that there arc dynamic interaction effects among social development,haze pollution and health life expectancy.Social development is conducive to improving public health level,while haze pollution has a negative effect on health life expectancy.In addition,the impact of social and economic development and haze pollution on health life expectancy is nonlinear.The average marginal effect of each factor is different in different situations,and there are indirect effects among various factors.The main performance is that in countries with slow development speed and low development level,residents’ public health is more vulnerable to the negative impact of haze pollution,while in countries with high-speed development and high-level development,this negative impact will be reduced;more importantly,in countries with serious haze pollution,social and economic development will not only not improve the health life expectancy of residents,but also reduce the negative impact.However,there is a negative average marginal effect,and the positive impact of development is seriously weakened.The results of this study not only provide a reference for the formulation of relevant standards,but also present some enlightenment for the formulation of policies to balance economic and social development and air pollution.