| Pareto/NBD模型扩展 |
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| 引用本文： | 马少辉.Pareto/NBD模型扩展[J].系统工程,2008,26(8). |
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| 作者姓名： | 马少辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏科技大学,经济管理学院,江苏,镇江,212003 |
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| 摘 要： | Pareto/NBD模型是由schmittlein等(1987)提出,用于描述非契约客户关系情景下客户重复购买行为.该模型被认为是目前客户基分析中的基准模型,但其所基于的概率分布假设过于严格,且存在与常识不符的问题.针对这些问题,使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法,直接获得客户购买率和流失率的后验样本,从而使放松Pareto/NBD模型的假设成为可能.通过放松Pareto/NBD模型假设,设计了三个扩展模型,推导了相应的公式.用实际的数据集对pareto/NBD模型及其扩展进行预测效果对比,发现了预测能力明显高于Pareto/NBD模型的扩展模型.
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| 关 键 词： | Pareto/NBD模型 重复购买 客户基分析 层级贝叶斯 |
The Pareto/NBD Model Extensions |
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| MA Shao-hui.The Pareto/NBD Model Extensions[J].Systems Engineering,2008,26(8). |
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| Authors: | MA Shao-hui |
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| Institution: | School of Economics and Management;Jiangsu University of Science and Technology;Zhenjiang 213002;China |
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| Abstract: | The Pareto/NBD model was developed by Schmittlein et al.(1987) to describe repeat-buying behavior in a non-contractual setting.Though the model has been regarded as a benchmark model for customer-base analysis,the assumptions of probability distribution on which it is based are too rigid and allegedly disgree with realistic behavioral.In this paper, the author proposes an MCMC approach to get the individual level posterior samples of purchase frequency and dropout rate,which makes it feasible to weaken any ... |
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| Keywords: | Pareto/NBD Model Repeat Buying Customer Base Analysis Hierarchical Bayes |
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