中国金融-房地产系统的风险溢出效应研究

本研究提出了风险级联传染网络模型，证明了当传染轮数趋于无穷时，节点风险增量收敛的充分必要条件是风险传染强度矩阵特征值的模值小于1。在实证研究方面，本研究基于公开的股票市场数据，构建了中国的房地产-金融系统风险传染网络。结果表明：（1）从2010年到2022年，总体风险传染强度在波动中不断上升，房地产业是最大的系统性风险源头（2）房地产业对银行业的溢出风险存在类别与空间异质性。（3）节点重要性分数服从幂律分布。

Research on the Risk Spillover Effects in the Chinese Financial-Real Estate System

This research introduces a risk cascading contagion network model and proves that the sufficient and necessary condition for node risk convergence as the number of contagion rounds approaches infinity is that the modulus of the eigenvalues of the risk transmission matrix is less than 1. In empirical research, this study constructs a real estate-financial system risk contagion network in China based on publicly available stock market data. The results indicate: (1) From 2010 to 2022, the overall intensity of risk contagion has been continuously increasing within fluctuations, with the real estate industry being the largest source of systemic risk. (2) Real estate exhibits category and spatial heterogeneity in terms of spillover risk to banks. (3) Node importance scores follow a power-law distribution.