区域通行能力与出行时间可靠性综合仿真模型

在城市路网中,路段通行能力退化和交通需求随机波动都会增加路网的不确定性。为研究路网中单个区域的交通可靠性问题,通过采用区域备用能力作为综合性能指标,建立了度量区域交通服务水平的双层规划模型。基于此提出了区域通行能力和出行时间综合可靠度的概念及其Monte Carlo仿真算法。最后通过一个数值算例对模型和仿真算法进行验证,仿真结果说明了区域通行能力、服务水平与可靠性之间的相互替代关系。

Integrated Simulation Model for Zonal Capacity and Travel Time Reliability

Stochastic link capacity degradation and travel demand fluctuation result in more network uncertainties in urban road networks. In order to investigate network reliability for a single zone, the zonal reserve capacity was adopted as an integrated performance index. Based on it, the concept of zonal capacity and travel time reliability, together with its numerical algorithm based on Monte-Carlo simulation, was proposed. Finally, a numerical example was given to demonstrate the validity of the proposed model and simulation algorithm. The numerical simulation results further illustrate the tradeoff among capacity, service level and reliability.