“2-4”模型及关联规则下塔吊坍塌事故致因分析

基于事故致因“2-4”模型,从人、物、环境、组织4个层面构建塔吊坍塌事故致因初步模型.对收集的100起塔吊坍塌事故案例,运用“0-1”法则建立事故致因数据库;通过Apriori算法和“2-4”模型,挖掘塔吊坍塌事故的致因链.结果表明:缺乏安全教育培训、安全生产责任制度未落实、安全生产保障制度缺失为重点致因,且均属于“2-4”模型中的组织层面;提出塔吊坍塌事故预防措施,并通过实证分析证明了致因链及预防措施的有效性.

Cause Analysis of Tower Crane Collapse Accident Using"2-4"Model and Association Rules

Based on the “2-4” model of accident cause, the preliminary model of tower crane collapse accident cause was constructed from four levels of human, material, environment and organization. Based on 100 cases of tower crane collapse accident, the database of accident cause was established by using “0-1” rule. Through the Apriori algorithm and the “2-4” model, the cause chain of the tower crane collapse accident was obtained. The results showed that the lack of safety education and training, the failure to implement the safety production responsibility system, and the lack of safety production guarantee system were key causes, and they all belonged to the organizational level in the “2-4” model. Preventive measures of tower crane collapse accident were put forward, and effectiveness of causal chain and preventive measures were proved by empirical analysis.