一个应用于经济领域的基于知识的可灵活配置的智能蒙特卡洛仿真框架

电子商务的发展,促进了经济贸易的全球化、自由化,加剧了市场的竞争与波动,使得经济模型的适应性受到极大的限制.而经济模型是分析和预测经济发展的基础,为了改善这种限制,我们结合XML与知识技术,建立了一个可配置的智能模型仿真框架.我们也把随机数据库融入该框架中,从而实现了可配置的蒙特卡洛仿真.这样,我们极大地提高了经济模型的适应性、扩展性以及智能性.这种框架可以适用于任何能够运行完全参数化模型的仿真引擎.另外,我们还给出了5种分析仿真结果的方法,以帮助研究人员更好的分析、判断与预测.

Knowledge-Based Flexible and Intelligent Monte Carlo Simulation Framework in Economic Area

The expanding developments of E-commerce are stimulating the globalization and liberalization of economy, and increasing the rivalry and volatility of the market. As a result, the applicability and suitability of economical models, which are the fundamentals of analyzing and predicting the economical development, are highly restricted. To solve these problems, a combination of XML and Knowledge library was proposed to establish a flexible and intelligent mechanism to enhance the model applicability and intelligence, while holding models unchanged. Stochastic distribution library was integrated into this framework to do Monte Carlo simulation, and thus could perform better analysis and prediction. The solution is practicable at any simulation engine that could run fully parametric simulation models. Besides, five for simulation output analysis methods for references were provided.