中国房地产市场周期波动分析

房地产市场具有其特有的周期性.在定性分析国内外房地产周期波动的基础上,以房地产开发投资和商品房施工面积为输入指标、以商品房竣工面积和商品房销售金额为输出指标,利用数据包络分析方法(DEA之C2R模型)以及Lingo数学软件,基于我国部分城市的房地产市场周期(波动),定量地实现了相同城市、不同时间的纵向分析和相同时间、不同城市的横向分析.基于宏观与微观政策、提高运行效率(优化非有效性)等,提出了有效利用房地产市场周期的若干设想.

Periodic Fluctuation Analysis of Real Estate in China

A real estate market has its own periodic fluctuation. Based on the qualitative analysis of the periodic fluctuation of real estate markets at home and abroad and taking the investment in real estate development and the area of the commercial housing being constructed as the input index and the total floor space of commercial housing and sales amount of commercial housing as the output index, the longitudinal analysis (in the same city but different time) and transverse analysis (in the same time but different cities) were both made quantitatively via the data envelopment analysis method (C²R model of DEA) and Lingo mathematical software, where the data were acquired from the periodic fluctuation of real estate market in several cities in China. In this way some policies were envisaged to make advantages of the periodic fluctuation on the basis of existing macro/microscopic policies, thus improving the operational efficiency, i.e., to optimize the invalidity at present.