SDA模型的加权平均分解法及在中国第三产业经济发展分析中的应用

近年来结构分解分析(SDA)已经发展成为投入产出技术领域的一种主流经济分析工具。指出SDA模型分解方法理论上存在的三个基本问题，提出加权平均分解法，并研究了这种方法的相关性质，证明了在文献中广泛应用的两种分解方法——两极分解法和中点权分解法是这种分解方法的近似解。作为实证．应用加权平均分解法．对影响中国经济结构中第三产业变动的因素做出了定量分析，发现第三产业经济增长主要依赖国内消费的拉动．其次是投资和出口，主要阻碍来自于直接消耗系数和进口替代。

A Weighted Average Decomposition Method of SDA Model and Its Application in Chinese Tertiary Industry Development

Input-output structural decomposition analysis has developed into a major economic analytical tool in recent years, which was found to suffer from three shortcomings. To overcome the problems, a weighted average decomposition method was proposed here, and the two approaches applied predominantly in the literature were proved to be the approximation to this method. Then, output growth of Chinese tertiary industry between the years 1987 and 1995 was decomposed into five factors. We found the sources of the change are mainly attributed to that of domestic consumption, then invest and export; the role of input-output coefficients and import substitution are negative.