基于ESDA的国内旅游流规模时空差异分析

1997-2011年时间序列上国内各地区旅游流规模时空差异的分析结果显示：国内旅游流规模区域间的绝对差异逐渐扩大，相对差异呈现出缓慢下降、波动发展和快速下降3个发展阶段。各年份国内旅游流规模全局Moran’s I值均为正值，国内旅游流规模分布存在着一定的空间集聚性， Moran散点图显示的各年份区域旅游流规模空间分布特征没有太大差异。 LISA聚集图和局部Moran’s I分析表明，随着时间的变动，逐渐形成了以山东、江苏和安徽为核心的发达国内旅游业聚集区，而新疆和甘肃一直处于冷点区域，四川和海南则一直为HL和LH的显著代表区域。

The time and space differences analysis on the scale of domestic tourist flow based on ESDA

The analysis results of the time and space differences on domestic regional tourism flow scale of the time series from 1997 to 2011 show that the absolute difference of domestic tourism flow scale between areas expands gradually, the relative difference present three development stages which include slow drop stage, wave development stage and rapid decline stage. The domestic tourism flow scale global Moran＇s I value is positive in each year, it exist a certain space agglomeration in domestic tourism flow scale distribution, the moran scatter diagram shows the regional tourism flow scale space distribution features have not much difference, the LISA gathered diagram and local moran＆＇s I analysis show that as time changes, it gradually formed a developed domestic tourism accumulation area which put Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui as the core, Xinjiang and Gansu province have been in the cold spot area, and Sichuan and Hainan have been as significant representative areas of HL and LH.