福建省土地利用动态变化及趋势预测

根据福建省1988年土地利用详查资料与1995—2001年土地变更资料以及相关经济统计年鉴，对福建省土地利用动态变化及驱动力进行了分析．探讨了宏观政策对土地利用变化的影响后，对建设用地及耕地等主要土地利用类型在区域尺度上采用逐步回归方法加以分析，得出第三产业发展、居民生活水平提高以及固定资产投资增加是建设用地扩展的主要驱动力，而全社会固定资产投资与农业内部调整是导致耕地减少的主要原因．利用1995—1996年土地利用转移概率矩阵以及修正后的转移概率矩阵，运用马尔可夫过程对福建省土地利用结构进行模拟与预测，试图揭示该省土地利用未来走向，并为实现土地合理利用、土地资源优化配置提供决策依据。

A Study on the Change and Change'' Trend of the Land Use in Fujian Province

An analysis on the change and driving forces of land use cover in Fujian Province, using land survey datas of 1988 and 1995-2001, and statistics of society and economy.It has analyzed policy driving force, and analysed driving forces of cultivated land and built-up land change using stepwise regression method. The results show that driving forces of built-up land change are mainly the third estate development and the inhabitant live standard improvement and the fixed assets investment increase, driving forces of cultivated land change are mainly the fixed assets investment increase and the adjustment of agriculture structure. Then after calculating the land type change probability matrix of 1995-1996, and modificatory probability matrix,forecast the change trend of land use of 2010 in Fujian Province, according to Markoff principle, aiming at supplying some useful reference for central and local government in sustainable land use and optimization of disposition of land resources.