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| 森林公园客流量的灰色预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 郭占胜,张勇富,黄桂萍,王秋霞,李广宇,何海杰,臧建立.森林公园客流量的灰色预测[J].河南科学,2002,20(2):207-210. |
| 作者姓名： | 郭占胜 张勇富 黄桂萍 王秋霞 李广宇 何海杰 臧建立 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 河南农业大学,河南郑州,450002 2. 林州市林科所,河南林州,456592 3. 南阳市林业科学研究所,河南南阳,473015 4. 郾城县林业局,河南郾城,462300 5. 宜阳县林业局,河南宜阳,471600 |
| 摘 要： | 在运用常规GM (1,1)模型群的基础上 ,采用新息GM(1,1)模型群分段选优进行预测的方法 ,对森林公园客流量进行中短期预测 ,所选模型均为Ⅰ级 ,其预测精度均高于 99%,这可为森林公园建设和管理等决策提供科学依据。 |
| 关 键 词： | 森林公园 新息GM(1 1)模型群 灰色预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-3918(2002)02-0207-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年11月27 |
The grey prediction of the tourist amount of the forest park |
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| GUO Zhan-sheng ,ZHANG Yong-fu ,HUANG Gui-ping ,WANG Qiu-xia et al.The grey prediction of the tourist amount of the forest park[J].Henan Science,2002,20(2):207-210. | |
| Authors: | GUO Zhan-sheng ZHANG Yong-fu HUANG Gui-ping WANG Qiu-xia |
| Institution: | GUO Zhan-sheng 1,ZHANG Yong-fu 2,HUANG Gui-ping 2,WANG Qiu-xia 3 et al |
| Abstract: | Based on the using of the normal group of GM(1,1) model, a new method of new information group of GM(1,1) model ,which could select the best model in different segment to predict the tourist amount of forest park, was set up. According to the new method, a short-term forecasting(2001～2005a)was made. All the models selected were the first grade and the precision of that forecasting was high to 99%.The forecasting results provided the scientific basis for policy-making of construct and management of the forest park. |
| Keywords: | forest park the new information group of GM(1 1) model grey prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |