基于交通环境承载力的城市人口容量预测研究——以太原市为例

城市人口容量研究不仅是城市总体规划的主要内容，对于城市控制性详细规划也起着一定的指导作用。道路交通资源作为承载人口的重要载体，本身具有一定的承载能力。基于交通环境承载力的城市人口容量研究对城市可持续发展有着重要的意义。本文以太原市为例，从道路交通资源承载角度，运用太原市交通模型，以城市交通系统车行道容量估算方法与OD反推两种方法为基底研究手段，结合太原市交通模型开发报告与太原市城市交通发展规划方式划分结果，进行基于交通环境的城市人口容量预测研究，运用此两种模型方法得到太原市规划年极限交通环境承载力条件下的人口容量，对比分析预测结果，论证该模型方法的可行性，并分析两种预测方法的适用性。

The Study of Urban Population Carrying Capacity Forecast Based on Traffic Environmental Carrying Capacity——A Case Study of Taiyuan City

The study of urban population carrying capacity is the main contents of urban master planning, and it also has the guiding role for city regulatory detailed planning. As the important carrier of urban population, road traffic resource has the certain carrying capacity itself. The study of urban population carrying capacity forecast based on traffic environmental carrying capacity has an important significance for urban sustainable development. This paper took Taiyuan city as an example. From the point of road traffic environmental carrying capacity, using Taiyuan traffic model and the research means of urban traffic system carriageway capacity estimation method and OD estimation method, combining with the traffic model splitting result in Taiyuan traffic model report and Taiyuan traffic development planning report, carry on the study of urban population carrying capacity based on traffic environmental carrying capacity. Obtain the population carrying capacity under the condition of ultimate traffic environmental carrying capacity with the two models. Compare the forecast result demonstrate the feasibility of the models, and then analysis the application scope of the two models.