| 最优组合预测及其在瓦斯浓度预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 干滴滴,赵志刚.最优组合预测及其在瓦斯浓度预测中的应用[J].山东科技大学学报(自然科学版),2012,31(2):55-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 干滴滴 赵志刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东科技大学资源与环境工程学院,山东青岛,266590 |
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| 摘 要： | 瓦斯浓度预测是预防煤矿瓦斯事故的关键技术之一,以预测误差平方和最小为准则确定最优组合预测模型中的权系数,实现瓦斯浓度预测模型的最优组合,利用实际数据、通过与单一时间序列模型、线性回归模型及人工神经网络模型的预测精度对比分析,验证了瓦斯浓度最优组合预测模型的有效性和实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 最优组合预测 瓦斯浓度 权系数 误差平方和 |
The Optimal Combination Prediction Method and Its Application in Gas Concentration Prediction |
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| GAN Didi,ZHAO Zhigang.The Optimal Combination Prediction Method and Its Application in Gas Concentration Prediction[J].Journal of Shandong Univ of Sci and Technol: Nat Sci,2012,31(2):55-61. |
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| Authors: | GAN Didi ZHAO Zhigang |
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| Institution: | (College of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao,Shandong 266590,China) |
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| Abstract: | Gas concentration prediction is one of the key technologies in prevention of coalmine gas accidents.The weight coefficient of the optimal combination forecast model is determined by the criterion of the minimum square sum of the forecast error,realizing the optimal combination of gas concentration prediction models.The precision of the optimal combination forecast model is compared and analyzed with the other prediction models,such as single time series model,linear regression model and artificial neural network model by using the real data.It proves that the optimal combination forecast model of gas concentration is effective and practical. |
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| Keywords: | optimal combination forecast gas concentration weight coefficient square sum of error |
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