贸易开放与跨境电商耦合发展演变分析

基于2001—2017年外贸与跨境电商经济数据构建灰色模型,实证研究异质性贸易开放与跨境电商的耦合发展演变.首先对贸易开放量化分析发现:1)全国整体和东部地区的综合贸易开放、加工贸易开放呈"倒U型",在2007年达到峰值后回落,且东部高于全国水平; 2)中、西部的开放度不高,全国整体和东部地区的一般贸易开放呈逐步上升趋势,东部高于全国水平且差距不断扩大; 3)一般贸易开放的上升趋势平缓.进一步构建灰色关联模型进行实证检验发现:1)综合贸易开放、加工贸易开放与跨境电商的耦合发展有高度的阶段一致性,一般贸易开放的关联发展强度高于加工贸易开放和综合贸易开放,2013—2017年间的综合贸易开放、加工贸易开放和一般贸易开放均滞后于跨境电商发展; 2)综合贸易开放、一般贸易开放与跨境电商的耦合发展呈稳步上升趋势,加工贸易开放呈"倒L型",2007年是拐点; 3)综合贸易开放、一般贸易开放的耦合发展阶段性特征表现为过渡发展与协调发展,一般贸易开放耦合发展指数在2014—2017年出现跨越式增长.

Analysis on the Coupling Development and Evolution of Trade Opening and Cross-border E-Commerce

Based on the economic data of foreign trade and cross-border e-commerce from 2001 to 2017,this paper constructs a grey model to empirically study the coupling evolution of heterogeneous trade openness and cross-border e-commerce. Quantitative analysis of trade openness shows that comprehensive trade and processing trade openness in the whole country and the eastern region are inverted U-shaped,which declined after peaking in 2007,and the eastern region is higher than the national level; the openness of the central and western regions is not high. The general trade openness of the whole country and the eastern region is on the rise gradually. The eastern region is higher than the national level and the gap is widening. The general trade openness of the central and western regions is on the rise gently. The grey relational model is constructed to test the results. It is found that the coupling development of integrated trade,open processing trade and cross-border e-commerce has a high degree of phase consistency; the development intensity of general trade opening is higher than that of processing trade and integrated trade; the development of comprehensive trade,open processing trade and general trade between 2013 and 2017 lags behind that of cross-border e-commerce. The coupling development of integrated trade,general trade openness and cross-border e-commerce shows a steady upward trend,while the opening of processing trade is inverted L-shaped,with 2007 as the turning point. The phased characteristics of the coupling development of comprehensive trade and general trade openness are the coordinated development,and the coupling development index of general trade openness shows a leap-forward growth in 2014—2017.