卡尔曼滤波模型在危岩变形预测中的应用

危岩变形体的预测、预报是实施崩塌灾害防灾减灾的重要手段,着眼于卡尔曼滤波法的基本模型及其在变形监测数据处理中的特点,基于危岩变形体的状态向量,建立了危岩预测模型；通过三峡库区磨子岭危岩的监测数据进行了模型验证,算例计算结果表明:运用卡尔曼滤波法进行危岩位移预测,其平均误差值小于1 mm,预测效果有较好的可靠性.

Study on kalman filter model in the deformation prediction of unstable rock block

Prediction on the deformable body of unstable rock block is a main measure to actualize disaster prevention and mitigation for the collapse hazard. With a view to the basic model of kalman filter method and its character in the data processing of deformation monitoring and based on the state vector for the deformation body of unstable rock block, the prediction model of unstable rock block was established. In addition, the prediction model was validated based on the monitoring data of unstable rock block in Mo-zi Ridge, Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Calculation results indicate that the average error value is less than 1mm and to predict the displacement of unstable rock block by using kalman filter method has a preferable effect.