基于险度函数的研制风险度量研究

现代弹箭系统是一种集多门学科于一身的复杂系统.在研制过程中,由于受到不确定性因素的影响,会给研制工作带来一定的风险.本文分析了各种风险分析与估计方法,给出了风险的数学表述方法和风险分布的概率估计.结合武器系统研制的实际情况,假定行为人风险偏好特性为定常风险中立,给出了在该风险偏好特性下的险度函数.通过险度函数的研制风险分析为风险决策提供了量化的决策依据.以反直升机智能雷战斗部为例,验证了该方法的有效性,并且具有科学和实用价值.

Study on Risk Measurement Based on Risk Measurement Function

Modern ammunition|rocket system is a complicated system including multi|subjects. During the development, because of accepting many undetermined factors, it carries many risks for development work. The paper analyzes various methods of risk analysis and estimation and gives out the method of mathematical expression of risk and probability estimation of risk distribution. Combined with practical situation of weapon system development, if risk preference characteristics of behavior person is risk independence of fixed constant, it gives out risk measurement function under the characteristics of risk preference. The development risk analysis based on risk measurement function enables effective risk decision to be made on the basis of quantified risk. Take anti|helicopter intelligent mine warhead as an example, the paper has verified the efficiency of the method and shows that it has scientific and practical values.