贵州省水资源生态足迹评价与预测

水资源是人类生产生活最关键的资源，对国民经济和社会发展有着不可替代的作用，是实现社会经济可持续发展的社会基础。依据水资源生态足迹的原理和模型，对贵州省2001—2012年水资源生态足迹、生态承载力进行分析。在此基础上，采用指数平滑法对贵州省2013—2016年水资源生态足迹与生态承载力进行预测。结果表明：在2001—2012年间贵州省人均水资源生态足迹总体上呈上升趋势；贵州省历年人均水资源生态承载力均大于生态足迹，存在一定的生态盈余，水资源可持续开发利用情况较好；2013—2016年贵州省人均生态足迹呈上升趋势，2013年人均生态承载力略微下降，水资源仍处于生态盈余状态，但生态盈余量有所减少。水资源生态足迹的变化与社会经济发展密切相关，应该充分考虑贵州省水资源的时空分布情况，调整产业结构，合理调度、利用水资源，促进贵州省整个社会经济的持续发展。

Assessment and forecast on ecological footprint of water resources in Guizhou Province

Water resources are essential for production and life of human beings,as well as national economy and social development.So,water resources are the basis to realize the sustainable development of social economy.According to the basic principle and calculation model of water resources ecological footprint,the water resources ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity in the period of 2001—2012 in Guizhou Province are analyzed.Then,the water resources ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity in 2013—2016 is predicted by a method of quadratic exponential smoothing.The results show that the water resources ecological footprint per capita increase in the period of 2001—2012,and the ecological carrying capacity of water resources in Guizhou Province is more than the ecological footprint.As a net consequence, the ecological surplus exists.That is to say that the sustainable utilization of water resources in Guizhou Province is good so that the per capita ecological footprint in 2013—2016 in Guizhou Province will be rising.Although the per capita ecological carrying capacity in 2013 slightly fell,water resources were still in the ecologically surplus.Note that the ecological surplus amount decreased yearly.Such changes of water resources ecological footprint are closely related to socio-economic development.It is suggested that the industrial structure associated with the spatial-temporal distribution of water resources in Guizhou Province should be manipulated towards the rational management and use of water resources for further promoting the sustainable development of the overall socio-economy of Guizhou Province.