可修系统任务分析与成功性评估模型

通过分析可修系统任务执行时间的特点、任务成功要求以及执行现场维修保障条件,在综合考虑影响任务成功性因素的基础上,给出了四种情况下的任务成功概率评估模型,前三种模型分别是任务执行现场不具备任何维修保障条件下、具备备件快速更换条件下、既具备备件快速更换又具备故障件修复的条件下,对于确定和随机任务执行时间,可修系统在规定最大任务时间内不发生故障的概率。最后一个模型是在任务执行现场既具备备件更换又具备故障件修复的条件下,对于确定和随机任务执行时间,可修系统在有无规定最大任务时间内可以发生故障但总停机时间小于规定最大停机时间的概率。最后,针对其中一个模型,给出了可修算例。

Mission analysis and success evaluation model for repairable systems

The characteristics of execution time,the success requirements and the maintenance support conditions at the scene where the missions of the repairable systems are performed,are analyzed Considering all the factors with effects on mission success,the models of evaluating mission success probability in four cases are respectively provided.The first model presents the probability of systems not failing during determinate and random execution time of mission without any maintenance support conditions,the second studies the one of mission with the switching-in of spares,and the third studies the one of mission with maintenance support conditions of switching-in of spares and the repairs of failed items.The last model calculates the probability that systems can fail but the total downtime must be less than the given maximum value.Finally,for one of the models,an example is illustrated to show its application.