基于系统动力学的危险化学品水污染事件中城市供水危机应急策略研究——以2005年吉化爆炸引发哈尔滨水危机为例

危险化学品所造成的水污染事件不仅严重威胁生态环境,而且给沿岸城市带来供水危机,影响人民生命安全和正常生产.为此,本文基于系统动力学构建水污染突发事件研究模型,探索城市供水危机应急管理对策.不同于现有定量研究大多侧重于水污染事件的水治理技术或其经济社会影响,该模型将危险化学品水污染事件的自然与社会双重属性同时引入研究框架,梳理政府、媒体和公众在该突发事件中的行为关联机制.为此,本文以吉化爆炸引起哈尔滨水危机为案例,实证研究表明:水污染突发事件将会带来城市供水危机,并进而引发社会恐慌,对此,可通过增强信息透明程度、提高污水处理技术水平和提高政府应急调度水平来加以有效应对.结果同时表明,本文所构建的模型能有效模拟危险化学品水污染事件中城市供水危机的应对措施,为相关管理部门的应急管理提供理论依据和技术支持.

System-dynamics-based emergency strategy analysis for urban water supply crisis in water pollution accidents caused by dangerous chemicals — A case study of Harbin water crisis caused by explosion of Jilin Chemical Company

Water pollution emergencies, especially caused by dangerous chemicals, not only pollute ecological environment, but also shrink city water supply, seriously damaging economic production and people's life safety. Therefore, this paper tries to build systematic dynamics based model for water pollution emergency simulation and to discover effective management policies. Different from other existing studies which mainly focused on water treatment technologies, this model especially considers social factors, such as government response and public panic. Taking Harbin water crisis caused by explosion in Jilin Chemical Company as the study case, the empirical study showed that, city water supply crisis and public panic caused by water pollution accident are closely related to water pollution technologies, information transparency and the government's scheduling ability. The results also proved the effectiveness of the model in simulating management policies of water supply crisis in water pollution emergencies, which can provide helpful support for the related management department in decision making.