基于技术风险的方案优化与评估方法的研究

科学地克服方案的性能瓶颈是方案优化的关键.为了科学地突破方案性能瓶颈，提出了一种在充分考虑技术风险的条件下引进技术组合以实现优化及评估方案性能的方法.由于技术本身不成熟所带来的风险会引发不确定性问题，为合理评估技术组合对方案性能优化程度的影响，采用了基于技术成熟度的技术指标影响评估方法，并提出将技术不确定性影响与方案性能指标树相结合的方法来评估多种技术组合对方案性能的优化情况.仿真结果表明，该方法考虑了技术成熟度所带来的风险影响，使评估结果更具科学性、合理性.最后以高速民用运输机型方案评估为例说明了该方法的适用性. 

Research on Scheme Optimization and Evaluation Method Based on Technical Risk

The key to scheme optimization is to scientifically overcome the performance bottleneck of the scheme. In order to break through the performance bottleneck of the scientific solution, a method was presented to optimize and evaluate the performance of the scheme by introducing technology combinations while fully considering technical risks. Because the risks brought about by the immaturity of technology itself will cause uncertainty problems. In order to reasonably estimate the impact of technology combination on the degree of performance optimization, an evaluation method of technology index impact based on technology maturity was adopted, and a method was presented to evaluate the optimization results of the scheme performance caused by various technology combinations by using a combination of technology uncertainty impact and scheme performance index tree. Simulation results show that, this method, taking into account the risk and impact caused by technology maturity, makes the evaluation result more scientific and reasonable. Finally, an example of evaluating the high-speed civil transportation model was given to illustrate the applicability of this method.