突发事件应急救援前摄性调度与反应性调度的集成优化

突发事件应急救援具有高度的不确定性与动态性,稳定可靠的救援计划及其合理有效的动态调整,对于应急救援的顺利实施具有重要影响.本文以企业生产事故与突发事件为主要对象,研究应急救援的前摄性调度与反应性调度的集成优化问题.作者首先对问题进行界定,构建前摄性调度优化模型以求得一个鲁棒性最大的基准计划,然后以此为基础建立调整损失最小的反应性调度优化模型.针对问题的NP-hard属性,设计专门的禁忌搜索启发式算法.最后,通过对一个实际井喷事故救援过程的求解分析对研究进行说明,得到如下结论:前摄性调度的鲁棒性与反应性调度的损失值之间,并不存在一个绝对的单调关系,通过反复多次的求解运算,可以找到二者之间平衡点,实现两种调度方式的集成优化.本研究可为突发事件应急救援基准计划的制定与动态调整提供定量化决策支持.

Integrated optimization of proactive scheduling and reactive scheduling for emergency rescue

Emergency rescue owns characteristics of high uncertainty and dynamic. A reliable rescue schedule and its reasonable adjustment during the execution are very important for the smooth implementation of the emergency rescue. Taking the production incidents in enterprises as background, this paper involves the integrated optimization of proactive scheduling and reactive scheduling for emergency rescue. The authors identify the research problem firstly and then construct the optimization model for proactive scheduling to generate a baseline schedule with the maximal robustness. Based on this work, the reactive scheduling optimization model with the objective of minimizing the adjustment loss is established as well. Aiming at the NP-hardness of the problem, a special tabu search heuristic algorithm is developed. Ultimately, through solving and analyzing a practical case of blowout accident, the research is illustrated and the following conclusion is drawn: There is not an absolute monotonous relationship between the robustness of proactive scheduling and the adjustment loss of reactive scheduling. The balance points of the two scheduling methods can be found and thus their integrated optimization can be realized by the repetitious solution operations. The research can provide quantitative decision supports for the preparation and dynamic adjustments for emergency rescue schedule.