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| Hurst指数分析地震震级趋势 | |
| 引用本文： | 谭海霞,王宏图,陈林.Hurst指数分析地震震级趋势[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),2013,36(5):119-123. |
| 作者姓名： | 谭海霞 王宏图 陈林 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 云南民族大学管理学院,昆明,650500 2. 重庆大学西南资源开发及环境灾害控制工程教育部重点实验室,重庆,400044 3. 云南省地质矿产勘查院,昆明,650051 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(51104155)；重庆市科委自然科学基金计划资助项目(CSTC2012JJB00005)；重庆市国土局项目(2009-01) |
| 摘 要： | 应用Hurst指数及分形维D、相关系数C和V统计量图形以及散点图和拟合趋势线方法,分析全球7.0级以上地震震级序列,发现该序列是分形布朗运动,均值回复过程(粉红噪声,反持续性,逆状态持续性),且具频繁的逆转突变性或易变性,长期情况下其震级呈现极微弱的下降趋势.可供地震研究和安全研究工作参考. |
| 关 键 词： | 地震 Hurst指数 时间序列分析 分形布朗运动 反持续性 |
Application of Hurst exponent to analyzing the trend of earthquake magnitude |
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| TAN Haixi,WANG Hongtu and CHEN Lin.Application of Hurst exponent to analyzing the trend of earthquake magnitude[J].Journal of Chongqing University(Natural Science Edition),2013,36(5):119-123. | |
| Authors: | TAN Haixi WANG Hongtu and CHEN Lin |
| Institution: | School of Management, Yunan University of Nationalities, Kunming 650500, China;;Key Laboratory for the Exploitation of Southwest Resources and Environmental Disaster Control Engineering, Ministry of Education, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China;;Exploration Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources of Yunnan, Kunming 650051, China |
| Abstract: | The sequence of global earthquake magnitude of 7.0 and more than 7.0 is analyzed by the methods of Hurst exponent, fractal dimension D, correlation coefficient C and V-statistics and the scatter diagram and fitting trend line. The results show that this sequence is a fractional Brownian motion, mean reversion process (pink noise, anti-persistence and persistence against the state), and with a frequent reversal mutation or volatility. In the long case, the magnitude shows a very slight downward trend. Conclusion of the study can provide reference for seismic studies and safety studies. |
| Keywords: | earthquakes Hurst exponent (H) time series analysis fractional Brownian motion anti-persistence |
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