气候变化影响下2050年广东沿海地区风暴潮风险评估

 随着气候变化的影响，广东沿海地区台风风暴潮灾害时空分布逐渐发生变化。本文根据近30年来广东沿海地区18个验潮站的风暴潮资料以及近60年来西北太平洋热带气旋资料，结合前人对西北太平洋热带气旋与海表温度关系研究以及对珠江三角洲地区海平面上升趋势的预测研究，利用ArcGIS空间分析技术，对2050年广东省沿海地区风暴潮淹没范围进行了预测，并对不同区域风暴潮的危险性进行了分析评价。从社会经济、土地利用、生态环境、滨海构造物和承灾能力5个方面构建风暴潮承灾体脆弱性评估体系，完善了广东省沿海地区风暴潮脆弱性指标预测模型，通过该模型对2050年该地区风暴潮脆弱性进行了评估。在未来气候变化影响下风暴潮灾害危险性评价和脆弱性评估的基础上，对2050年广东沿海地区风暴潮灾害风险进行了综合评估，绘制了该地区风暴潮灾害风险评价图。

Risk assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province in year 2050 under climate change

With the impact of climate change, the spatial and temporal distribution of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong province is changing. The data of storm surges in the 18 tide stations for the past 30 years and the data of tropical cyclones for the past 60 years are collected. The research concerning the relations among temperature of sea surface, frequency of tropical cyclones landed and scale of storm surges is quoted. The prediction of sea level rise in Pearl River Delta is referenced. Using the spatial analysis technology of ArcGIS, the submerged scope for storm surge in the coastal area of Guangdong in year 2050 is determined and the hazard assessment is carried out. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index and disaster-bearing capability index. Then a storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the Guangdong coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general model about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved. The vulnerability of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong in 2050 is calculated. Based on the hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment under climate change, the risk assessment of storm surges in the study region in 2050 is done and the a risk zoning map is drawn. This study reveals the risk of storm surges in the coastal cities in the future, and which may guide the government decision-making and land planning and provide scientific advices for the government to prevent and mitigate storm surge disasters, as well as for engineering design.