| 基于ARMA与BP神经网络模型的产品质量安全风险预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 周荣喜,蔡小龙,崔清德,徐步祥.基于ARMA与BP神经网络模型的产品质量安全风险预测[J].北京化工大学学报(自然科学版),2015,42(6):115. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周荣喜 蔡小龙 崔清德 徐步祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京,100029;北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京,100029;北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京,100029;北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划(2013BAK04B02) |
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| 摘 要： | 主要通过对产品伤害人数的预测来表征产品质量安全风险。依据产品伤害人数的时间序列数据,建立较为稳定的ARMA模型和BP神经网络模型对产品伤害人数做出了科学的预测;并对两种预测方法进行了实证结果比较与分析,为管控产品质量安全风险提供方法支持。
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| 关 键 词： | 产品质量安全 ARMA模型 BP神经网络 风险预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-06-26 |
Safety risk prediction of product quality based on the auto-regressive moving average prediction (ARMA) model and the back propagation (BP) neural networks model |
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| ZHOU RongXi,CAI XiaoLong,CUI QingDe,XU BuXiang.Safety risk prediction of product quality based on the auto-regressive moving average prediction (ARMA) model and the back propagation (BP) neural networks model[J].Journal of Beijing University of Chemical Technology,2015,42(6):115. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU RongXi CAI XiaoLong CUI QingDe XU BuXiang |
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| Institution: | School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper monitors the safety risk of product quality by forecasting the number of injured people. First,based on the time series data of the number of people injured by the product, the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) prediction model and the back propagation (BP) neural network model are employed to forecast the the number of people injured by the product. The predictions of the two models are compared and analyzed. The results offer a method for the safety risk management of product quality. |
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| Keywords: | product quality and safety risk ARMA model BP neural network risk prediction |
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