| Study of Combination Forecasting in Airline Traffic Turnover |
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| 作者姓名： | LIU Jun QIU Wan-hua WEI Cun-pingSchool of Management Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Beijing China |
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| 作者单位： | LIU Jun，QIU Wan-hua，WEI Cun-pingSchool of Management，Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics，Beijing 100083，China |
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| 摘 要： | There are many sophisticated forecasting methods at present,butitis difficultto getaccurate and reliable resultwith only one method in forecasting practice.Ifmany differentforecasting methods were adopted in one forecasting subject,and combined appropriately,then available information coming from the varied methods was used adequately to improvethe forecasting accuracy.That is the basic idea of the combination forecasting.Bates andGranger first put the combination forecasting method forward at…
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Study of Combination Forecasting in Airline Traffic Turnover |
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| LIU Jun,QIU Wan-hua,WEI Cun-pingSchool of Management,Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Beijing ,China.Study of Combination Forecasting in Airline Traffic Turnover[J].Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering,2001,10(2). |
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| Authors: | LIU Jun QIU Wan-hua WEI Cun-ping |
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| Institution: | School of Management, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083, China |
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| Abstract: | The basic theory and method of the combination forecasting are introduced. Based on the actual data in an airline, the case study was presented. In the case study, two basic forecasting models are set up, which are the time-regression plus seasonal factor model and the logarithm additive Winters model. And two combination models are established with the basic models, which are the optimal combination model and the regressive combination model. The results of the study are guidable to the practice. |
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| Keywords: | forecasting combination forecasting air transportation forecasting |
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