出行效用连续分布的路径选择模型及其特性分析

出行者路径选择行为的建模对城市路网的规划和智能交通控制系统的研究具有重要意义.传统的基于期望效用理论的路径选择模型存在许多不足,而累计前景理论则可以比较真实的描述在不确定性情况下的决策过程,符合出行者有限理性的特点.本文以累计前景理论为基础,在路径出行效用连续随机分布的条件下对出行者的感知效用进行建模,并结合模型的变量对模型的特性进行了分析,最后通过实例对比分析了期望效用理论与累积前景理论,结果表明累积前景理论可以克服期望效用理论的许多不足,更好的描述出行者的决策过程.通过对参考点和路径效用分布的分析,为智能交通控制系统和仿真建模奠定了理论基础.

Route Choice Modle with Continuous Distribution Travel Value and Its Characteristic Analysis

Modelling on travellers’ route choice behaviors could be of great significance to the study of urban road network planning and intelligent traffic control system. Traditional expected utility theory based route choice model still exist lots of disadvantage, and cumulative prospect theory(CPT) could describe the decision process upon uncertainty more truly, which also be corresponding in the characteristic of traveler’s bounded rationality. This paper takes the cumulative prospect theory as basis, establishes model for traveler’s perception of travel route utility continuous distribution, and analyze the model's properties combined with related variables. In addition, according to cases to make comparative analysis between expected utility theory and cumulative prospect theory, the results show that the former can be better describing traveler’s decision process. Especially, through the analysis of reference point and route utility distribution, laying a foundation for later study on intelligent traffic control system and traffic simulation modelling.